Solana (SOL) loyalists believe the blockchain is an Ethereum killer; hence, comparisons were bound to happen after Ether (ETH) slid to a three-and-a-half-year low against Bitcoin (BTC), last seen in 2021. The central question is whether Solana will hold its own against Bitcoin or lose ground similar to Ether.
Analysts are divided about Solana’s next trending move. While some expect the price to decrease, others believe a breakout could be possible. In a Sept. 20 X post, veteran trader Peter Brandt said that Solana holding the $120 support could prepare it for a “sizable advance.”
Crypto market data daily view. Source: Coin360
VanEck is also bullish on Solana. In a Sept. 25 report, the firm projected Solana to reach $330, soaring to 50% of Ether’s current market capitalization. However, the report added that the institutional investors were slow to recognize Solana’s advantages, possibly because of the hesitation to switch from blue chip coins such as Ether.
Solana will also have to look out for emerging competition that could dislodge it as the top alternative layer-1 network to Ethereum. According to K33 Research analysts, Sui Network could become a rival to Solana.
Will Solana hold its own against Bitcoin, or could it plunge like Ether? Let’s analyze the SOL/BTC charts to find out.
SOL/BTC weekly price analysis
The pair has formed a symmetrical triangle, which usually behaves as a continuation pattern. As the price was moving higher before the triangle’s formation, the possibility of a breakout remains high.
SOL/BTC weekly chart. Source: TradingView
However, the flattish 20-week exponential moving average (0.0023 BTC) and the relative strength index (RSI) near the midpoint do not give a clear advantage either to the bulls or the bears.
If the bulls maintain the price above the 20-week EMA, the SOL/BTC pair could attempt a break above the resistance line. If they succeed, the pair could start the next leg of the up move to 0.0031 BTC and thereafter to the pattern target of 0.0039 BTC.
This positive view will be invalidated in the near term if the price turns down and breaks below the triangle. That could sink the pair to 0.0018 BTC and later to 0.0013 BTC.
Related: Bitcoin bull run unlikely as long as social sentiment runs too hot — Santiment
SOL/BTC daily price analysis
Inside a triangle, the price generally oscillates between the support and the resistance lines. The pair bounced off the support line on Sept. 18 and rose above the moving averages on Sept. 26.
SOL/BTC daily chart. Source: TradingView
Buyers will try to propel the price to the resistance line, where sellers are likely to step in. If the price turns down from the resistance line but rebounds off the 20-day EMA (0.0023 BTC), the possibility of a break above the triangle increases.
On the other hand, if the price turns down and breaks below the moving averages, it will suggest that the pair may extend its stay inside the triangle. The trend will favor the bears on a break below the support line.
It is difficult to predict the direction of the breakout with certainty. Hence, it is better to wait for the breakout to happen before placing large bets.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.