Bitcoin (BTC) is witnessing volatility and has succumbed to selling pressure on Sept. 30, falling below $64,000. Even after giving back its gains, Bitcoin is on track to record its best monthly gains in September, topping the 6.04% rise in 2016, according to CoinGlass data.
Traders are likely to be upbeat about Bitcoin entering the fourth quarter as October has been one of the strongest months, with an average gain of 22.90% and median gains of 27.70%. If history repeats itself, then a new high is likely to be hit within the next couple of months.
Daily cryptocurrency market performance. Source: Coin360
ZX Squared Capital chief investment officer CK Zheng told Cointelegraph that the United States presidential election is another bullish trigger for Bitcoin as both the Republican and Democratic parties have failed to “appropriately address the ever-increasing US debts and deficits during this election.”
Interestingly, Bitcoin rallied 168% in the fourth quarter of 2020, which witnessed the halving event and the US presidential elections.
Could Bitcoin and altcoins rally sharply in October? Let’s analyze the charts to find out.
S&P 500 Index price analysis
The S&P 500 Index has been maintaining above the breakout level of 5,670, but the up-move lacks momentum. This shows hesitation in continuing to buy at higher levels.
SPX daily chart. Source: TradingView
The price could correct to 5,670, which is likely to act as a strong support. If the price rebounds off 5,670 with strength, it will signal that the bulls have flipped the level into support. That will improve the prospects of a rally to 6,000.
Instead, if the price turns down and breaks below the 20-day exponential moving average (5,653), it will suggest profit-booking by the short-term traders. If this support also cracks, the index could plummet to the uptrend line. This is a crucial level to watch out for because a break below it could accelerate selling.
US Dollar Index price analysis
The bears have repeatedly stalled recovery attempts at the 20-day exponential moving average (100.99), indicating that the US Dollar Index (DXY) remains in a downtrend.
DXY daily chart. Source: TradingView
Sellers will try to strengthen their position by pulling the price to the critical support at 99.57. This level had previously acted as a solid support, hence the bulls will again try to defend it aggressively. If the price rebounds off 99.57 but fails to break above the 20-day EMA, it will signal that the bears continue to sell on rallies. That will increase the risk of break below 99.57.
If buyers want to prevent the downside, they will have to push and maintain the price above the 20-day EMA. The upside could pick up momentum above 102.
Bitcoin price analysis
Bitcoin closed above $65,000 on Sept. 26, but the failure to push the price higher attracted profit booking by short-term traders. That has pulled the price back below the breakout level on Sept. 30.
BTC/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The 20-day EMA ($62,722) is the crucial level for the bulls to defend. If the price bounces off the 20-day EMA, the buyers will try to kick the price above $66,500. If they can pull it off, the BTC/USDT pair may jump to $70,000.
Conversely, a break below the 20-day EMA will signal that the bullish momentum is weakening. The pair could then drop to the 50-day SMA ($60,300). That could keep the pair inside the $54,000 to $65,000 range for some time.
Ether price analysis
The bulls could not thrust and maintain Ether (ETH) above the resistance line on Sept. 27, indicating that the bears are defending the level.
ETH/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The price is currently stuck between the 20-day EMA ($2,559) and the resistance line. This tight-range trading is unlikely to continue for long. If the price resolves to the upside, the ETH/USDT pair could rise to $2,850 and, after that, to $3,400.
This optimistic view will be negated in the near term if the price continues lower and breaks below the moving averages. That may keep the pair inside the symmetrical triangle pattern for a few more days.
BNB price analysis
BNB (BNB) turned down from $618 on Sept. 28, indicating that the traders are selling near the overhead resistance of $635.
BNB/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The price has reached the 20-day EMA ($575), an important level to watch out for. If the price turns up sharply from the 20-day EMA, the bulls will make one more attempt to clear the overhead hurdle. If they manage to do that, the BNB/USDT pair could surge to $722.
On the other hand, if the price closes below the 20-day EMA, it will signal that the bulls have given up. That could keep the pair stuck inside the $460 to $635 range for some more time.
Solana price analysis
The bulls are struggling to propel Solana (SOL) above the $164 overhead resistance, indicating selling on rallies.
SOL/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
A minor positive for the bulls is that they have not ceded much ground to the bears. The rising 20-day EMA ($147) and the RSI in the positive territory suggest that the path of least resistance is to the upside. If bulls push the price above $164, the SOL/USDT pair could rally to $188.
Contrarily, if the price turns down and breaks below the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that the pair may continue to range between $116 and $164 for a while.
XRP price analysis
XRP (XRP) rose above the $0.64 resistance on Sept. 29, but the long wick on the candlestick shows the bears are selling on rallies.
XRP/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The bulls again attempted to maintain the price above $0.64 on Sept. 30, but the bears did not relent. This suggests that the markets have rejected the breakout. The XRP/USDT pair could plunge to the 20-day EMA ($0.59).
If the price turns up from the current level or the 20-day EMA with strength, it will suggest that the bulls remain buyers on dips. Buyers will have to kick the price above $0.66 to clear the path for a rally to $0.74.
Related: Why is Bitcoin price down today?
Dogecoin price analysis
Dogecoin’s (DOGE) recovery is facing selling at $0.13, which has pulled the price to the breakout level near $0.12.
DOGE/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The 20-day EMA ($0.11) has started to turn up, and the RSI is in the positive zone, indicating a minor advantage for the bulls. If the price bounces off the 20-day EMA and rises above $0.13, the DOGE/USDT pair could reach $0.14. This level may act as a resistance, but if cleared, the rally could reach $0.18.
On the contrary, if the price turns down and breaks below the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that the bears are active at higher levels. That may lead to a possible range formation between $0.09 and $0.13 for a few days.
Toncoin price analysis
Toncoin (TON) is facing selling above $6, but a positive sign is that the bulls have not allowed the price to slip below the moving averages.
TON/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
If the price turns up from the moving averages and breaks above $6, it will signal the start of a move to $7. The bears may pose a strong challenge at $7, but if the bulls prevail, the rally could stretch to $8.29.
This positive view will be invalidated in the near term if the TON/USDT pair plummets below the moving averages and the $5.37 support. That could open the doors for a possible drop to the $4.72 to $4.44 support zone.
Cardano price analysis
Cardano (ADA) rose above the $0.40 resistance on Sept. 27, but the long wick on the candlestick shows strong selling at higher levels.
ADA/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The price has turned down toward the 20-day EMA ($0.37). If the price rebounds off the 20-day EMA with strength, the bulls will again attempt to drive the ADA/USDT pair above $0.40. If they succeed, the pair may climb to $0.46. Buyers will have to overcome this barrier to signal the start of a new up move.
Alternatively, if the price skids below the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that the pair may extend its stay inside the $0.31 to $0.40 range for some more time.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.