Bitcoin’s (BTC) price has rebounded by approximately 18.50% over a week after crashing to its six-month low of around $49,755. However, owing to a mix of technical and onchain indicators, the cryptocurrency may undergo further correction in the coming weeks.
Over 80% of Bitcoin’s long-term traders are still in profit
BTC’s ongoing correction cycle has accompanied a decline in the percentage of long-term holders in profits., calculated on a 30-day moving average.
As of Aug. 16, nearly 83% of these matured Bitcoin holders—those who have held the cryptocurrency for more than 155 days—were in a profitable position. In March, the percentage of profit-making long-term investors was around 96%.
A high number of BTC held in profit is often seen as a sign of FOMO, which typically precedes or coincides with price corrections. As a result of this onchain signal, Bitcoin’s price may see pullbacks over the coming days if LTHs decide to book profits.
Ascending triangle breakdown may send BTC price to $50K
Bitcoin’s ongoing consolidation moves are appearing inside what appears to be an ascending triangle pattern. This setup forms after a strong downtrend, which technically indicates a potential reversal or a weakening of the downward momentum.
However, in some cases, the ascending triangle might act as a continuation pattern in a downtrend. If the price fails to break out above the resistance and instead breaks below the rising trendline, the downtrend might resume. This would indicate that the sellers have regained control.
Bitcoin faces downside risks if it stays under its immediate resistance level, aligning with the 50-4H exponential moving average (50-4H EMA; the red wave) at around $59,280. A decisive break below the triangle\'s lower trendline will likely trigger the breakdown setup.
Should it happen, Bitcoin price will likely fall toward the ascending triangle\'s downside target of around $50,000, also a psychological support level.
Bitcoin may not crash after all
As noted, ascending triangles are considered bullish reversal patterns in a downtrend. Therefore, Bitcoin’s decisive close above its 50-4H EMA could increase its probability of rallying toward the triangle’s upper trendline, which aligns with its 200-4H EMA (the blue wave) at around $59,240.
Related: Bitcoin price must flip $62K to avoid worst ‘death cross’ consequences
Meanwhile, a successful close above the upper trendline will likely trigger the ascending triangle breakout scenario, with the upside target at around $70,000.
The bullish setup aligns with the outlook presented by Charles Edwards, the founder of digital asset fund Capriole Investments.
Edwards argues that Bitcoin\'s price behind its safe-haven rival, gold. He overlaid BTC’s chart on the gold one, recognizing that it is trailing the precious metal\'s move by three months. Gold has already broken out of its previous consolidation trend to the upside, which may prompt Bitcoin to do the same.
“As a rough rule of thumb, macro Bitcoin trends are often lagged behind gold by a few months,” Edwards said, adding that the cryptocurrency’s upside outlook \"looks promising.\"
Federal Reserve’s potential rate cuts may further boost Bitcoin’s upside outlook. Lower rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding yielding assets like US bonds, boosting the appetite for riskier assets like stocks and crypto.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.