10X Research speculates that Bitcoin (BTC) could record an average gain of 32% on or before the highly anticipated Bitcoin halving event.
Bitcoin has shown a stellar performance in 2024, with a year-to-date (YTD) surge of 23.8%. The top asset also breached the $50,000 resistance for the first time since 2021.
Bitcoin to Continue Its Rally
While there is a likelihood that Bitcoin could experience a brief pullback in price at any moment, digital asset research company 10X Research speculates that the ongoing rally could continue.
It bears mentioning that the upcoming halving is slated to go live on April 19, 2024. After the event, Bitcoin miners’ rewards will be reduced by 50% to 3.125 BTC from 6.25 BTC.
As seen in previous halvings (2012, 2016, and 2020), Bitcoin only registered new all-time highs several months after these events.
However, 10X Research speculates that BTC could potentially surpass its all-time high of $69,044, recorded in November 2021, before the highly anticipated halving event on April 19, 2024.
2 Reasons Why BTC Could Surpass $69K Before Halving
The firm highlighted two reasons that could help Bitcoin surpass the previous high before the halving event.
Historical 30% Surge Ahead of Bitcoin Halving
Notably, 10X Research mentioned major trends in the previous three cycles that could come into play in the upcoming halving event.
According to 10X Research, Bitcoin usually bottoms out within 12 to 16 months before each halving. In addition, the price of the top asset also increases 30% eight weeks ahead of the Bitcoin halving.
Specifically, 10X Research founder Markus Thielen forecasted that Bitcoin price would increase by 32% in 60 days leading up to the halving.
The next halving is just 62 days away. Following Thielen’s prediction, a 32% surge from Bitcoin’s current $52,326 price would push BTC to $69,070 on or before the highly anticipated halving event.
Referencing previous halving cycles, Thielen noted that the chances of Bitcoin embarking on a rally would increase as April 19 approaches.
Furthermore, Thielen asserted that the upcoming Bitcoin halving will follow the same pattern as previous cycles, given the prevailing sentiment within the crypto community.
According to him, positive market sentiments regarding crypto are influencing the TradFi community to acquire Bitcoin spot ETFs in anticipation of the upcoming halving event. In recent times, there have been strong inflows into Bitcoin spot ETFs among traditional investors.
Since the SEC approved the listing and trading of Bitcoin spot ETFs on January 11, these investment products have continued to see record growth in net flow. As reported earlier, the total net flows topped $4.69 billion on February 16.
Bitcoin’s Strong RSI
Another factor backing 10X Research’s prediction of Bitcoin surpassing its ATH before the halving event is the asset’s Relative Strength Index (RSI).
Last week, Bitcoin’s RSI surpassed 80% in the 14-day chart for the first time since December. Interestingly, the 10X Research team pointed out that 12 out of the 14 times Bitcoin achieved this feat, it produced an average gain of 54% over the next 60 days.
Whether Bitcoin will surpass its previous high before the upcoming halving event remains to be seen. BTC trades for $52,326 at press time, up 1.4% over the past 24 hours.