Despite being a traditionally bearish period, Bitcoin’s (BTC) current month is about to be its best September ever, while signs of retail returning are starting to emerge.
Previously, the highest gain observed in September was a 6% rally back in 2016.
Bitcoin monthly returns(%) chart year over year. Source: CoinGlass
Bitcoin has also witnessed gains during each month in Q4, whenever the last month of Q3 has been bullish. 2015, 2016, and 2023 are all prime examples of a potential bullish quarter ahead in 2024.
Multiple Bitcoin metrics flip bullish
In an X post, Julio Moreno, Cryptquant’s Head of Research, highlights that the Coinbase premium reached a two-week high on Sept. 26, as prices pushed past the $65,000 range.
Bitcoin: Coinbase Premium index chart. Source: CryptoQuant
The Coinbase premium is often used as an index of US retail investor demand — the higher the value, the more buying pressure. Moreover, the Coinbase premium return currently coincides with an increase in spot Bitcoin ETFs daily inflows.
As reported by Cointelegraph, total aggregated inflows for the 11 spot Bitcoin ETFs were $365.7 million on Sept. 26, as BTC price reached new monthly highs.
This suggests that institutional investors are slowly turning their attention toward Bitcoin once again after favorable interest rate cuts were announced earlier this month.
Meanwhile, the spot cumulative volume delta across all exchanges also reached a new monthly high, with the net buy side of spot volumes dominating the chart.
Bitcoin spot cumulative volume delta. Source: Glassnode
This could be another indication of retail investors coming back, but more evidence is needed to confirm the trend.
Bitcoin forms first “HTF” bull pattern in 5 months
On Sept. 23, Cointelegraph highlighted that Bitcoin was attempting to clear $65,000 to create a new higher high pattern. Three days later, BTC managed to close a daily candle above the previous resistance at a higher time frame, or HTF, which broke a five-month bear trend.
Related: Q4 crypto rally chances ‘exceptionally high,’ fueled by BTC $65K breakout
As illustrated in the chart, the previous higher low (HL) and lower low (LL) pattern was broken after Bitcoin closed a daily candle above the HTF resistance at $65,000. An HTF breakout strongly indicates a potential new long-term trend forming on the chart.
Bitcoin 1-day chart. Source: TradingView
It is important to note that the current HH and HL pattern could still witness a pullback going forward, but that will be considered a bullish trend swing low.
Thus, the key resistance levels to watch are now $68,100 and $71,500, which BTC/USD failed to overcome in the summer.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.