Some Bitcoin traders seem to be brushing off concerns about the usual September dump, even though history suggests otherwise, and the macro environment could be a strong enough factor to challenge the ongoing narrative.
“Although September is historically a negative month for BTC, the combination of a Fed [United States Federal Reserve] rate cut and a relatively robust US economy could surprise the bears,” Tyr Capital chief investment officer Ed Hindi told Cointelegraph.
“We believe the chances of BTC settling above $60,000 to be higher than the chances of it settling below it,” Hindi added.
At the time of publication, Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at $56,633, having remained below $60,000 since Aug. 30, according to CoinMarketCap data.
Bitcoin is down 0.85% over the past 30 days. Source: CoinMarketCap
Although future traders do not anticipate a near-term move back up to $60,000. Bitcoin revisiting $60,000 will erase over $584 million in short positions, according to CoinGlass data.
Meanwhile, crypto trader Daan Crypto Trades told Cointelegraph that “in September, the average return is about -4%. Considering Bitcoin’s volatility, that’s not as bad as people perceive it to be.”
CoinGlass data shows that September is the worst month for Bitcoin, with the asset posting an average monthly loss of 4.49% over the last 11 years.
September has had the most Bitcoin red months since 2013. Source: CoinGlass
Daan Crypto Trades said he’d be watching Bitcoin’s longer-term price chart for a “higher high and higher low,” a bullish signal indicating buyers dominating the market over sellers.
“I’m mostly watching for price to flip its market structure to bullish,” he explained.
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“For now, I would want to see BTC trading back above $65,000 to show strength,” he added.
It follows shortly after crypto analyst Matthew Hyland highlighted the need for similar price action after Bitcoin fell below $58,000 on Aug. 30.
“We really need to start to bounce out of this and make a higher high to further confirm that we are in this uptrend that we’ve been in since August,” Hyland said in an analysis video on Aug. 30.
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This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.