Crypto analyst and founder of Capriole Funds Charles Edwards predicts the possibility of a 500% price return for Bitcoin (BTC) if a bullish halving pattern plays out.
According to Edwards, if Bitcoin\'s post-halving returns remain consistent with the year 2020, the cryptocurrency may reach $280,000 in 2025.
While it is feasible to argue that this cycle\'s returns are lower, Edwards believes the 2020 cycle\'s performance was mediocre and an outlier.
If Bitcoin\'s post Halving returns are the same as 2020, we are looking at $280K Bitcoin next year.
You might reasonably argue this cycle\'s returns are less than 2020.
However, I believe the 2020 cycle performance was mediocre and an outlier. pic.twitter.com/pzOkAd0ORm
— Charles Edwards (@caprioleio) February 5, 2024
The founder of Capriole Funds declared that 2020 was the worst Bitcoin bull market in history. He relates Bitcoin\'s underperformance to the 50% destruction of the mining network by China and the most aggressive Fed tightening cycle in history. Edwards noted that these were two massive, stagnating forces on Bitcoin, whose magnitudes are highly unlikely to be seen again in the next two years.
Edwards stated that 2024 would be the polar opposite of 2021. The Fed has begun easing, with Fed Chair Jerome Powell forecasting three cuts this year. In his resolution, a weaker dollar might imply a stronger Bitcoin.
Bitcoin halving, ETF might contribute to 800% surge for Bitcoin
Edwards believes the January Bitcoin ETF launch is as potent as a \"second halving,\" referencing Gold\'s example. As an example, he claimed that when the Gold ETF was created in 2004, the gold market capitalization was four times that of Bitcoin today.
With a market capitalization of roughly $3.3 trillion, gold has experienced a parabolic climb of more than 300% to $13 trillion in less than seven years.
Bitcoin\'s market capitalization today is a little over $800 billion. Smaller assets are often capable of enjoying bigger upside returns; Edwards explains his proposition for Bitcoin\'s massive price spike. He also noted that every major technological development in the last century has witnessed progressively quicker rates of adoption.
Given this, Edwards expects a 300% appreciation in the Bitcoin price over the next two to five years, driven solely by ETFs, to be conservative for Bitcoin. Also, a 500% return over the 18 months following the halving would not be unusual for Bitcoin historically. All in all, this adds to a target of an 800% surge.
The crypto researcher concludes that based on the two most important factors for Bitcoin this cycle, the Bitcoin ETF and halving, one might arrive at a conservative Bitcoin price of $300,000 in the next couple of years.
However, this remains speculation given that a lot can happen between now and then to cause these figures to rise or fall. Other data may become more relevant at other points in time, making it vital to conduct one\'s research and be well-informed before making major decisions.