Cryptocurrency analytics firm Alphractal has released a statement supporting the potential for significant selling by Bitcoin’s Long-Term Holders (LTH).
The firm’s analysis is based on two key on-chain metrics that point to increased activity among this group of investors, which Alphractal analysts argue points to a potentially major sell-off.
Reserve Risk Indicators
- VOCDD & MVOCDD: These metrics analyze the rate of coin destruction and compare the current price of Bitcoin with the average purchase cost of LTH, giving an idea about the sustainability of the market.
- Reserve Risk: This indicator offers clues about market sentiment by assessing whether Bitcoin is overbought or oversold.
- MVOCDD Signal: A tool used to identify market tops and indicate when Bitcoin may be nearing its peak.
Fixed Terminal Destroyed Coin Days (CDD Terminal Fixed)
- This refined metric adjusts traditional Coin Days Destroyed calculations to account for Bitcoin’s circulating supply, highlighting significant movements or periods of inactivity to provide a clearer perspective on LTH’s activity.
Historically, LTH has benefited from Bitcoin price rallies by selling, especially when average purchase costs are significantly lower than current market prices, according to the analyst firm. This profit-taking behavior often creates local resistance levels that can suppress Bitcoin’s upward momentum for weeks or even months.
According to the analytics firm, even if BTC continues to rise in the near future, data suggests that LTH no longer has much interest in holding its assets, which could shape market dynamics in 2025.
*This is not investment advice.