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It seems the market was acting up while I was out of office Thursday and Friday. It hasn’t stopped, either.
Several industry watchers called out BTC’s resilience at the end of last week (compared to US equities, for example) following Trump’s tariff reveal.
Then the asset’s price plummeted.
While BTC price stood around $83,000 Friday, Forward Guidance podcast guest Tony Greer called corporate bitcoin buying at every price level “astounding.” He also noted institutions’ ongoing willingness to buy the dip and their apparent long-term belief in the asset.
Though Strategy paused its BTC buying last week, the company bought 22,048 BTC at an average price of ~$87,000 per coin the week prior. GameStop recently closed a $1.3 billion private offering of convertible senior notes; a portion of the net proceeds may go toward buying bitcoin.
Net outflows from US spot bitcoin ETFs have stayed rather modest since peaking at $1.1 billion on Feb. 25. Roughly $165 million left those products last week, Farside Investors data shows.
Still, Forward Guidance’s Quinn Thompson noted: “It feels to me like if this broader risk meltdown drags too far too long, it’s eventually got to puke, I think.”
Let’s fast forward from that Friday conversation, as BTC’s price dropped substantially over the weekend — dipping below $75,000. It whipsawed with equities Monday morning and hovered around $78,500 at 1:30 pm ET.
David Hernandez, a crypto investment specialist at 21Shares, noted that BTC not always capitulating in line with other risk assets highlights its divergence from traditional markets.
“Bitcoin’s behavior [over] the last several days reflects its developing investment thesis as a store of value asset, one that could provide uncorrelated sources of return during moments of macroeconomic uncertainty,” Hernandez told me.
Now, markets eagerly search for any indication that Trump might pause or reverse tariffs ahead of Wednesday. Bitcoin cannot be tariffed, Hernandez added, “offering a potential flight to safety as other assets buckle.”
LMAX Group’s Joel Kruger argued that the current price levels present a compelling accumulation opportunity, regardless of the underlying fundamentals.
When evaluating where a “higher low” might emerge for equities and bitcoin, Kruger noted two “resistance-turned-support” levels: the S&P’s 2022 high around 4,800, as well as the $74,000 mark for BTC.
“The weekend’s market turmoil has finally brought these critical zones into play,” he added. “We’re now looking at medium- and long-term levels that should strongly appeal to both US equity and bitcoin investors.”
Hernandez views $72,000 (the breakout start point following the election) as a key support level to watch. Looking ahead, he points to expected Fed rate cuts serving as a tailwind for risk assets — with sidelined capital possibly returning to equities, credit and crypto as borrowing costs fall.
The probability of a 25bps cut next month sat at 36% mid-day Monday, according to CME Group data.