Bitcoin price could surpass the $1 million mark in January 2027, with a potential to reach higher levels by 2030.
This is according to a recently published paper by Dr Murray Rudd and Dennis Porter of Satoshi Action Fund, a prominent Bitcoin advocacy group.
The paper proposes a demand and supply equilibrium framework to forecast the asset’s price, accounting for its fixed supply and evolving demand.
BIG BREAKING: Peer-Reviewed paper led by @DrMurrayRudd shows that Bitcoin is on track to surpass $1,000,000 per coin by January 2027 with the potential to hit multi-millions by 2030. pic.twitter.com/12ayhOsJHe
— Dennis Porter (@Dennis_Porter_) January 30, 2025
Specifically, the study combines a constant elasticity of substitution (CES) demand function with Bitcoin’s inelastic supply curve.
A CES demand function is a mathematical formula used to show how demand for an asset can change in response to changes in its price and the prices of related assets.
By adjusting these parameters, using Bitcoin’s price and supply at the time of the 2024 halving and noting the function’s intersections with the asset’s inelastic supply curve, the model forecasts its price under different conditions.
With this model, the paper’s authors see Bitcoin surpassing the $1 million mark by autumn 2028 in the conservative scenario. This scenario assumes demand remains at levels seen in mid-December 2024, driven largely by exchange-traded funds.
However, in the bullish scenario, which is the paper’s headline target, the asset hits the coveted milestone in January 2027. Here, the authors cite the effect of growing corporate adoption sparked by MicroStrategy and the demand that could come from proposed strategic reserves from several U.S. states and countries worldwide.
Notably, the Satoshi Action Fund has been a major advocate for these reserves in multiple U.S. states, and their efforts appear to be seeing results. As the group’s CEO and co-author of the recent paper, Dennis Porter, has recently highlighted, at least 11 states are considering proposals to establish strategic Bitcoin reserves, with about five more expected to join soon.
In essence, the motivation for the recent paper was to highlight Bitcoin’s potential as a reserve asset.