Whalewalletsspentmorethan$70MinPolymarketbetsonTrump’selectionvictory.ThebidsonPolymarkettokensoriginatedwith10majorwhales.
Atotalof10whalewalletsarebehindthebiggestnumberofbidsfavoringTrumpasthewinneroftheUSPresidentialelections.Inthefinalstretchbeforeelectionday,morethan$70MinbidsweremadeinfavorofTrumpbecominganelectionwinner.
Thewhalesspentexactly$70.6Btobuy‘yes’tokensonPolymarket,drivinguptheTrumpwinchanceto66.7%.Polymarketmarkedanotherall-timehighforbidsonTrump’sside.
Trump\'soddsjustsetanotherall-timehighagainstKamalaHarris.
🟥Trump•66.7%chance
📘Harris•33.3%chancepic.twitter.com/aULiYJlkpC—Polymarket(@Polymarket)October29,2024
Outofthe10knownwallets,fourareconsideredtobelongtothesameperson,oneofthebiggestsingleplayers.ThetopfourwalletswerelinkedtotheidentityofaFrenchnationalwithoverwhelminginterestintheUSelection.
Polymarketreachespeakactivity
Polymarketisnotapollwebsite,andthebetsdonotreflectresearchorstatisticsonactualelectionoutcomes.However,thePolymarketbetsandbidsfor‘yes’or‘no’tokensreflecttheconfidenceorrisk-takingofindividualplayers.
ThevolumesontheTrump-Harrisbettingpairreached$2.7B.Polymarketregistered31Kuniqueactiveusers,remainingthetopapponPolygon.
Polymarketreachedpeakuserlevels,remainingoneofthetopappsonPolygon.|Source:DappRadar
Nothingpreventsplayersfrombettingonthe‘no’tokenforKamalaHarriswinningtheelections.Overall,holdersoftheoppositepositionsaremorediversebuthavesmaller-sizedbets.Polymarketalsonotedonetraderbetonthe‘no’token,buttherapidlossofvalueledtoadeeploss.
TherearealsoothermarketswheretheratioofTrumptoHarriswinningisnotasdramatic.Thepopularvotepollseesthe‘yes’tokenleadwith58%forKamalaHarrisand42%oddsforTrump.Thedisparityledtospeculationsthatwhalesweredeliberatelyswayingthemarket.
Atonepoint,bidsonthetokenaccelerateduntiltheypushedtheTrumpoddsabove97%.Suchabetwouldhavelittlemeaningandevensmallerearningsforthewhale.Afterthat,big-positionbuyersweremorecareful,expandingtheoddsataslowerpace.
BuyingacceleratesforTrumpbets
Thebehaviorofwhalesisnotbasedonsimplebets.TheparticipantsonthemostactivePolygonmarketarealsochoosingdifferentactivitylevels,dependingonthetimeperiod.MostoftherecentwhalesbecameactiveattheendofSeptember.
Inthefinalweekbeforetheelections,large-scalebuyingfor‘yes’tokensdominatesthemarket.Inthepastday,high-volumebuyingaccelerated,withnearly$1Minordersmadebyasinglebuyerwithinhours.AsexpectationsforaTrumpvictoryincreased,someofthepreviousbuyersalsoliquidatedtheirpositions,lockinginthelatestgains.
Notalltradersaremakinggains,despitetheclearodds.OneTrumpbuyeriscurrentlyatalossof$12Kafterstartingabuyingspreeat$0.67for‘yes’tokens.Oneofthemostactivewhalesinthepastday,withserialtransactionsabove$100K,isGCotrell93.Thebuyerholdsatotalpositionvaluedat$5.6M,withnetgainsof$22K.
ThebiggestpositionremainsthatofFredi9999,withmorethan$19.7Mlockedinbettingpositionsanda$3.44Mgain.Thelarge-scalebuyerisalsoknowntobeaFrenchnational,makingitlessprobablethatthemaingoalisthemanipulationofpublicopinion.
Thepricemaycontinuetofluctuateinthecomingdays,creatingalivelymarket.ThepresenceofspeculativebetsshowsnotallbuyingonPolymarketaimsatdistortingtheelectionoddsdeliberately.Thepresenceofmorewhaleswithunconnectedwalletssuggeststhebetsmaynotbedeliberatemanipulation,butanhonestexpectationofwinning.
BetsonTrumpwinningbuiltlargerpositionscomparedtobetsinfavorofHarris.|Source:Polymarket
Betsof$10,000andabovearemorediverse,withmorebuyingofKamalaHarris‘yes’tokens.Thosearestillconsideredwhalepositions,buttheyaremorerandom,unlikethetop10whalesthatdeliberatelybuiltuptheirholdings.
Polymarketkeepsdenyingdeliberatemanipulation,asbettingmarketsaredesignedtoself-balance,especiallyifbuyersaredefendinganon-viableposition.Additionally,Polymarket’smostactivebethasgrowntoobigtomanipulatedeliberately.
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