ApredictionmarketPolymarketusersoldnearly$4millioninbetsrelatedtoformerUSPresidentDonaldTrump’svictoryintheNov.5electionsinthepast24hours.
Theinvestorhadaccumulatedover$15.3millionintradingvolumeacross24differentmarkets.
On-chaindatarevealedthatthe“whale”identifiedas“larpas”startedsheddingpositionsaround4P.M.UTC.AccordingtoPolymarketactivityhistory,mostofthebetswererelatedtoaTrumpwinandVicePresidentKamalaHarris’loss.
Trump’soddsaffected
ThewhaleactivityaffectedTrump’soddsontheplatform,causingthemtofallto56.2%from60.6%asthepositionswereclosed.However,Trump’soddsrecoveredto58%asofpresstime.
Notably,on-chaindataplatformArkhamIntelligencepointedoutthatthesellingstartedoneminuteafterknowntraderGCRsuggestedusersexitelection-relatedpollsuntilNov.5.Hementionedthe2000USpresidentialelections,whichweredecidedby“amere537votes,”cautioningtradersnottopushtheirluck.
Galaxysaiditsdataon17differentelectionvenuesrevealedthatTrump’soddsofwinningfellin9ofthem.Nevertheless,theRepublicanrepresentativestillwinson14predictions,comprisingproprietarymodels,predictionmarkets,andaggregators.
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