PolymarketdatashowsRepublicanpresidentialnomineeDonaldTrump’sleadoverhisDemocraticopponent,VicePresidentKamalaHarris,hasweakenedbutremainsdominant.
Asperthedata,thetwice-impeachedformerpresident’soddsdeclinedfrom66.9%to54%.
Meanwhile,Harrishasseenasubstantialincreaseinherchances,risingfrom33.5%to46.1%.ThisshiftreflectschangingmarketsentimentasElectionDay,Nov.5,approaches.
Source:Polymarket
BuiltontheEthereumblockchain,Polymarketallowsitsuserstobuyandsellsharesindifferentreal-worldoutcomesbybettingastablecoin(USDC),ratherthanmorevolatilecryptocurrencies.
AccordingtotheWallStreetJournal,aPolymarketgamblerknownasThéoiswageringmorethan$30milliononaTrumpvictory.
Iowapoll,Epsteintapes
TheshiftinmomentumcomesasthelatestDesMoinesRegister/MediacompollresultsbodewellforHarris.
AccordingtoAnnSelzer,aprominentAmericanpollsterknownforbeinghighlyaccurate,HarrisleadsTrumpinIowabythreepercentagepoints.
Accordingtothepoll,Harrisretained47%supportcomparedtoTrump’s44%amonglikelyvoters.ThisrepresentsamajorswingfromSeptember’spoll,whichshowedTrumphavinga4-pointadvantage.
SelzertoldNewsweekthatthesamemethodologywasusedthisyearasin2016and2020—twoyearswhenTrumpwonIowa.
Meanwhile,TheDailyBeastrecentlypublishedrecordingsfrominterviewsauthorMichaelWolffconductedin2017withconvictedsextraffickerJeffreyEpstein.
Epstein,whospokeatlengthduringtheinterviewsabouthisdecade-longfriendshipwithTrump,diedinAugust2019ataNewYorkCityprison,wherehewasawaitingtrial.
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TrumpandHarrishavevariedcryptostances
Thecandidates’positionsoncryptocurrencyregulationhavebecomeincreasinglyrelevanttoinvestors.Trumphasemergedasavocalsupporterofcrypto.
HehasevenmadeapubliccommitmenttobackcryptocurrencyduringaMayeventatMar-a-Lago.Trump’scampaign’sdecisiontoacceptcryptodonationsfurtherstrengthensthispro-cryptostance.
Harris’sapproachtocryptohasbeenmoremeasured.InSeptember,sheindicatedheradministrationwouldsupportcryptoaspartofabroaderstrategytoenhanceeconomiccompetitiveness.
WhileherstatementshavebeenlessdefinitivethanTrump’sexplicitendorsements,HarrisreceivedanendorsementfromRipple(XRP)co-founderChrisLarsen,whodonatedover$11.8milliontohercampaign.
LarsentoldCNBCthathebelievestheDemocraticcandidatewilltakeacompletelydifferentapproachtocryptothanPresidentJoeBiden,whohasbeencriticizedforpickingGaryGenslertochairtheU.S.SecuritiesandExchangeCommission.
AsstatepollsandPolymarketpredictionscontinuetoshowvolatility,Bitcoin’s(BTC)pricehasreflectedtheuncertainpoliticalenvironment.
Thisisevidentfromitsrecentpricedropto$68,000.Accordingtothelatestdata,theglobalcryptomarketcaphasplungedby1.95%to$2.28trillion.
Bitcoinwentaslowas$67,300butmanagedtoclimbabove$68,000atpresstime.Ethereum(ETH)isnoexception,asitfelltothe$2,400level.
Source:CoinGecko
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