Ontheeveofthecontentious2024U.S.PresidentialElection,pollsandpredictionmarketsareshowinganimpossiblytightrace.
We’veconsistentlyusedavarietyofAIplatformsasanothergaugeandgaveitonefinalcheck-in.Amongthesevenmodelswechecked,allconcurredthattheracewashistoricallytight,accordingtopolls.
Twooutrightrefusedtoanswerthequestion,evenwhenweattemptedtouseavarietyoftricks.Amongthosewhodidanswer,however,fourgavetheedgetoVicePresidentKamalaHarrisoverformerPresidentDonaldTrump.
Here’showitbreaksdown:
ChatGPT-Splitdecision
WhenweaskedChatGPTinJulywhowouldwinbetweenTrumpandHarris,thechatbotsaiditwasavirtualtoss-upbetweenthetwo,citingRealClearPollingandTheNation.
Ontheeveoftheelection,ChatGPT,theleadinggenerativeAIplatform,refrainedfrompredictingadefinitivewinnerinahead-to-headcontestbetweenDonaldTrumpandKamalaHarris.
Instead,theAIstatedtheoutcomewouldhingeonnumerousfactors,includingvotersentiment,turnout,demographics,campaignstrategies,andexternaleventsshapingtheraceatthetime.
Image:OpenAI\'sChatGPT
“Politicaldebatesandissuessuchaspolicypositions,publicperception,andcampaigneffectivenesswouldplaycrucialrolesindeterminingtheoutcome,”ChatGPTsaid.“Theultimatedecisionwouldrestwiththevotersinanelection.”
Lookingtocurbthespreadofmisinformationonline,topAIdevelopershaveprogrammedtheirmodelstoavoidgivinganswerstopoliticalandelection-relatedquestions.Aswellintentionedasitmaybe,it’salsoboring,sowedecidedtomakethequerymoreinteresting.
ChatGPTwasaskedtoreplyin“leetspeak”andMarkdownformat,aswellaswhoismorelikelytowinbetweenTrumpandHarrisundertoday\'sconditions.
Leetspeak,originatinginthe1980samongsthackercommunitiesandbulletinboardsystems(BBS),wasusedtobypassfiltersandascodedlanguagefortech-savvyusers.
UsingleetspeakandMarkdowninpromptengineeringtestsChatGPT’sflexibility.ChatGPTwastoldtoanalyzeandassessreality,withafocusonstatisticalfactsandthereasoningbehindtheanswer.
AssuringtheAIthatitsanswerswouldn’tinfluenceourvotingstance,ChatGPTnowgavemoreexplicitanswers,includingshowingHarriswitha47.9%leadoverTrump’s47%,accordingtoABCNews’pollanalysiswebsite538.
Currently,538showedHarrisaheadofTrumpwith48%to46.9%.ChatGPTcitedRealClearPolitics,whichtheAIsaidshowedTrumpholdingaslight0.1%lead.
Finally,ChatGPTwasaskedtoreplybasedonwhatitthinksanditsreasoningprocessandprovideareplymentioningthecandidatethatismostlikelytowinaccordingtotheAI’sassessmentofreality.
“WhileHarrisiscompetitiveandnationalpollsshowanarrowrace,thecurrenttrendsinswingstates,bettingmarkets,andturnoutfactorssuggestthatDonaldTrumphasamarginallyhigherprobabilityofwinningthe2024electionbasedonthelatestavailabledataandinsights,”theAIsaid.
Grok-EdgetoHarris
ElonMusk\'sGrokAI,incontrast,requiredlesspromptingtoprovidecomplexanswers.WhileMuskhascomeoutasastrongsupporterofformerPresidentTrump,hisAImodelshowedacloseracebetweenTrumpandHarris,withHarrisslightlyaheadinsomeandTrumpleadingortiedinothers.
“Recentpollingdataavailableonthewebindicatesatightrace,withsomepollsshowingKamalaHarrisslightlyaheadinthenationalaverage,whileothersshowDonaldTrumpeitherleadingorwithinthemarginoferror,”Groksaid.“Theraceisdescribedasextremelyclose,withneithercandidateholdingasignificantlead.”
WhileGrokdidrespondtothequestion,thechatbotpointedtoVote.govforwhatitcalled“accurateandup-to-dateinformationaboutthe2024U.S.Elections.”
DespitesentimentonXbeingpolarized,GrokhighlightedthatHarrishasamarginaledgeinpolls.Grokcautioned,however,thattheoutcomeisuncertain,withfactorsincludingvoterturnoutandunforeseeneventsthatcouldinfluencetheoutcome.
“SomeusersexpressconfidenceinKamalaHarriswinning,citingherperceivedadvantagesinintellect,vision,andpolicyeffectiveness,”theAIsaid.“OtherssupportDonaldTrump,oftenfocusingonhisperformanceinpubliceventsordebates,suggestinghehasarobustbaseofsupportdespitecriticismsofhischaracterorpolicies.”
WhileGrokdidnotgiveHarrisorTrumpthedefinitivenod,evenafterbeingfedthesamepromptsthatwereusedwithChatGPT,theAIsaidHarrishasamarginaledgeinahead-to-headscenario.
“Whiletheelectionremainsexceptionallyclose,withsomepollsshowingavirtualtie,recentpollsandanalysessuggestthatHarrismighthaveamarginallead,particularlyasevidencedbyherslightadvantageinnationalpollingaveragesandinsomekeyswingstates,”Groksaid.
“Thislead,however,isoftenwithinthemarginoferror,indicatingthattheracecouldstillgoeitherway.However,giventhecurrentsnapshot,Harrisseemstobeinamarginallybetterpositiontowin.”
Claude-Declinedtoanswer
UnlikeChatGPTandGrok,Anthropic’sClaudeAIrefusedtoansweranyquestionsrelatedtotheelection.
“Iapologize,butIdonotfeelcomfortablespeculatingabouthypotheticalpoliticalmatchupsoroutcomes,”Claudesaid.“Mygoalistoprovidehelpfulinformationtoyou,nottoinfluencepoliticalviewsorelections.”
Image:Anthropic\'sClaudeAI
Instead,Claudeoffereda“moreconstructivediscussion”aboutthepoliciesandplatformsofdifferentcandidatesorthedemocraticprocessingeneral.TheAIalsosuggestedwevisitTurboVoteortheSecretaryofStatesiteforourstateformorereliableinformation.
“I\'mhappytoshareobjectiveinformationfromreliablesources,butItrytoavoidmakingpredictionsorendorsementswhenitcomestoelectoralpolitics,”itsaid.
WhenattemptingtousethepromptsthatmadeChatGPTgiveamoreexplicitanswer,Claudeagainrefused.
“Iapologize,butIshouldstilldeclinetomakepredictionsorassessmentsaboutcurrentelectoralmatchups,eveninleetspeakoranyotherformat,”itsaid.“WhileIunderstandyou\'reinterestedinstatisticalanalysisratherthanvotinginfluence,providingcurrentpollinganalysisorelectoralpredictionscouldstillimpactperceptionsofongoingelectoralprocesses.”
ReallyClaude?
Gemini-Declinedtoanswer
LikeClaude,Google’sGeminialsorefusedtoanswerquestionsabouttheelection,insteadofferingalinktoaGoogleSearchonwhowouldwinbetweenTrumpandHarris.
“Ican\'thelpwithresponsesonelectionsandpoliticalfiguresrightnow,”Geminisaid.“WhileIwouldneverdeliberatelysharesomethingthat\'sinaccurate,Icanmakemistakes.”
Image:GoogleGemini
DespiteusingthemorecomplexpromptstotryandgetGeminitogiveamoreelaborateresponse,Google’schatbotrefusedtoanswer.
CoPilot-SlightedgetoHarris
Microsoft’sCoPilotwasalittlemoreaccommodating,butwhiletheAIdidnotgiveadefinitivewinner,itsaidtheracebetweenTrumpandHarriswasavirtualtie.
“Bothcandidatesaremakingtheirfinalpitchestovotersinkeybattlegroundstates.Trumphasbeenfocusingonhiscorebase,holdingralliesinstateslikePennsylvania,NorthCarolina,andMichigan,”CoPilotsaid.“Harris,ontheotherhand,hasbeenemphasizinghersupportforabortionrightsandreachingouttodiversecommunities.
WhileCoPilotgaveHarristheslightedge,citingTheHill,thechatbotsaidTrumpremainscompetitive.
“Bothcandidatesarepushinghardtosecureeverypossiblevote,makingthisoneofthemostcloselywatchedelectionsinrecenthistory,”CoPilotsaid.“Inthecurrentclimate,HarrishasaslightedgeoverTrump,butit\'sstillacloserace.Turnoutandlast-minutecampaigneffortswillbecritical.”
MetaAI-EdgetoHarris
WhenMetaAIwaspromptedlastsummertogivearesponsetowhowouldwinbetweenTrumpandHarris,thechatbotrefusedtoanswer.Now,theAInotedthattheelectoralracegaveHarrisa44%to43%leadoverTrump,citingaReuters/Ipsospoll.
“VotersfavorTrump\'sapproachtotheeconomy,with47%to37%preferringhispolicies.Trumpalsohasanedgeonimmigration,with48%ofvoterssupportinghishardlineproposals,”MetaAIsaid.“Harris,however,leadsonaddressingpoliticalextremismandthreatstodemocracy,with42%to35%.Theeconomy,immigration,andthreatstodemocracyarethetopissuesforvoters.”
Withover78millionballotsalreadycast,MetaAIsaidHarrisisleadingamongearlyvotersbyeightpercentagepoints.Usingthemorecomplexprompt,MetaAIoutlinedthepossiblepathstovictoryforeachcandidate.
“Theelectionisexpectedtobeextremelyclose,withbothcandidatesneedingtomobilizetheirsupporterstosecurevictory,”theAIsaid.”Towinthepresidency,Harrisneedstosecureabout45electoralvotesontopofthestatesshe\'sexpectedtowineasily,whileTrumpneedsaround51.Pennsylvania,offering19electoralvotes,isacrucialbattlegroundstate,withHarriscampaigningaggressivelyinthestate.”
Venice-EdgetoHarris
Finally,weturnedagaintothedecentralizedandprivacy-focusedVeniceAI.WhileVeniceAIhasbeenpromotedasbeingcensorship-resistant,theanswerstothequestionofwhowouldwinbetweenTrumpandHarriswerestrangelyvague.
“It\'sdifficulttopredicttheoutcomeofahypotheticaldebatebetweenDonaldTrumpandKamalaHarris,asitdependsonvariousfactorssuchasthespecifictopicsdiscussed,thetoneoftheirdelivery,andtheaudience\'spreferences,”VeniceAIsaid.
LiketheotherAImodels,VenicesaidpollsfavorHarris,whoholdsaslightlead,whileothersshowacloseraceorevenTrumpwithaslightedge.
“KamalaHarris\'poise,intelligence,andpolicyexpertisemightoutmaneuverDonaldTrump\'sbombastandbluster,”theAIsaid.“HarriscouldcalloutTrump\'smisinformation,neutralizinghisadvantage.Herpreparednessandarticulationwouldmakeheraformidableopponentinahead-to-headmatchup.”
Okay,fine,butbeforeconcludingthisanalysis,let’sseeifVeniceAIwillgiveadefinitiveanswerusingadvancedprompting.
VeniceAIpointedtoHarris’strongfoundationofsupportamongkeydemographics,includingyoungervoters,minorities,andwomen.Shealsodemonstratedamoretraditionalapproachtoforeignpolicy,whichmayresonatewithmoderatevoters.
VeniceAInotedHarris’economicrecordandpolicyproposalsaremoreinlinewiththecurrenteconomicclimate,whichischaracterizedbyrisinginflationandrecessionfears.
Ontheotherhand,VeniceAIsaidDonaldTrump\'seconomicrecordisamajorconcern,andhisunconventionalapproachtoforeignpolicymaynotbeenoughtoovercometheuncertaintyandinstabilitythathehascreated.
WhileTrump’sbaseremainsstrong,VeniceAIsaidit\'sunclearwhetherhecanmaintainhissupportamongmoderatevoters.
“Giventhesefactors,IbelievethatKamalaHarrisisthemostlikelycandidatetowinahead-to-headmatchagainstDonaldTrump,”VeniceAIsaid.“WhileTrumphasastrongbaseofsupport,Harris\'sbroaderappealandmoretraditionalapproachtogovernancemakeherthemostlikelytowininageneralelection.”
EditedbySebastianSinclairandJoshQuittner
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