Ontheeveofthecontentious2024U.S.PresidentialElection,pollsandpredictionmarketsareshowinganimpossiblytightrace.

We’veconsistentlyusedavarietyofAIplatformsasanothergaugeandgaveitonefinalcheck-in.Amongthesevenmodelswechecked,allconcurredthattheracewashistoricallytight,accordingtopolls.

Twooutrightrefusedtoanswerthequestion,evenwhenweattemptedtouseavarietyoftricks.Amongthosewhodidanswer,however,fourgavetheedgetoVicePresidentKamalaHarrisoverformerPresidentDonaldTrump.

Here’showitbreaksdown:

ChatGPT-Splitdecision

WhenweaskedChatGPTinJulywhowouldwinbetweenTrumpandHarris,thechatbotsaiditwasavirtualtoss-upbetweenthetwo,citingRealClearPollingandTheNation.

Ontheeveoftheelection,ChatGPT,theleadinggenerativeAIplatform,refrainedfrompredictingadefinitivewinnerinahead-to-headcontestbetweenDonaldTrumpandKamalaHarris.

Instead,theAIstatedtheoutcomewouldhingeonnumerousfactors,includingvotersentiment,turnout,demographics,campaignstrategies,andexternaleventsshapingtheraceatthetime.

Image:OpenAI\'sChatGPT

“Politicaldebatesandissuessuchaspolicypositions,publicperception,andcampaigneffectivenesswouldplaycrucialrolesindeterminingtheoutcome,”ChatGPTsaid.“Theultimatedecisionwouldrestwiththevotersinanelection.”

Lookingtocurbthespreadofmisinformationonline,topAIdevelopershaveprogrammedtheirmodelstoavoidgivinganswerstopoliticalandelection-relatedquestions.Aswellintentionedasitmaybe,it’salsoboring,sowedecidedtomakethequerymoreinteresting.

ChatGPTwasaskedtoreplyin“leetspeak”andMarkdownformat,aswellaswhoismorelikelytowinbetweenTrumpandHarrisundertoday\'sconditions.

Leetspeak,originatinginthe1980samongsthackercommunitiesandbulletinboardsystems(BBS),wasusedtobypassfiltersandascodedlanguagefortech-savvyusers.

UsingleetspeakandMarkdowninpromptengineeringtestsChatGPT’sflexibility.ChatGPTwastoldtoanalyzeandassessreality,withafocusonstatisticalfactsandthereasoningbehindtheanswer.

AssuringtheAIthatitsanswerswouldn’tinfluenceourvotingstance,ChatGPTnowgavemoreexplicitanswers,includingshowingHarriswitha47.9%leadoverTrump’s47%,accordingtoABCNews’pollanalysiswebsite538.

Currently,538showedHarrisaheadofTrumpwith48%to46.9%.ChatGPTcitedRealClearPolitics,whichtheAIsaidshowedTrumpholdingaslight0.1%lead.

Finally,ChatGPTwasaskedtoreplybasedonwhatitthinksanditsreasoningprocessandprovideareplymentioningthecandidatethatismostlikelytowinaccordingtotheAI’sassessmentofreality.

“WhileHarrisiscompetitiveandnationalpollsshowanarrowrace,thecurrenttrendsinswingstates,bettingmarkets,andturnoutfactorssuggestthatDonaldTrumphasamarginallyhigherprobabilityofwinningthe2024electionbasedonthelatestavailabledataandinsights,”theAIsaid.

Grok-EdgetoHarris

ElonMusk\'sGrokAI,incontrast,requiredlesspromptingtoprovidecomplexanswers.WhileMuskhascomeoutasastrongsupporterofformerPresidentTrump,hisAImodelshowedacloseracebetweenTrumpandHarris,withHarrisslightlyaheadinsomeandTrumpleadingortiedinothers.

“Recentpollingdataavailableonthewebindicatesatightrace,withsomepollsshowingKamalaHarrisslightlyaheadinthenationalaverage,whileothersshowDonaldTrumpeitherleadingorwithinthemarginoferror,”Groksaid.“Theraceisdescribedasextremelyclose,withneithercandidateholdingasignificantlead.”

WhileGrokdidrespondtothequestion,thechatbotpointedtoVote.govforwhatitcalled“accurateandup-to-dateinformationaboutthe2024U.S.Elections.”

DespitesentimentonXbeingpolarized,GrokhighlightedthatHarrishasamarginaledgeinpolls.Grokcautioned,however,thattheoutcomeisuncertain,withfactorsincludingvoterturnoutandunforeseeneventsthatcouldinfluencetheoutcome.

“SomeusersexpressconfidenceinKamalaHarriswinning,citingherperceivedadvantagesinintellect,vision,andpolicyeffectiveness,”theAIsaid.“OtherssupportDonaldTrump,oftenfocusingonhisperformanceinpubliceventsordebates,suggestinghehasarobustbaseofsupportdespitecriticismsofhischaracterorpolicies.”

WhileGrokdidnotgiveHarrisorTrumpthedefinitivenod,evenafterbeingfedthesamepromptsthatwereusedwithChatGPT,theAIsaidHarrishasamarginaledgeinahead-to-headscenario.

“Whiletheelectionremainsexceptionallyclose,withsomepollsshowingavirtualtie,recentpollsandanalysessuggestthatHarrismighthaveamarginallead,particularlyasevidencedbyherslightadvantageinnationalpollingaveragesandinsomekeyswingstates,”Groksaid.

“Thislead,however,isoftenwithinthemarginoferror,indicatingthattheracecouldstillgoeitherway.However,giventhecurrentsnapshot,Harrisseemstobeinamarginallybetterpositiontowin.”

Claude-Declinedtoanswer

UnlikeChatGPTandGrok,Anthropic’sClaudeAIrefusedtoansweranyquestionsrelatedtotheelection.

“Iapologize,butIdonotfeelcomfortablespeculatingabouthypotheticalpoliticalmatchupsoroutcomes,”Claudesaid.“Mygoalistoprovidehelpfulinformationtoyou,nottoinfluencepoliticalviewsorelections.”

Image:Anthropic\'sClaudeAI

Instead,Claudeoffereda“moreconstructivediscussion”aboutthepoliciesandplatformsofdifferentcandidatesorthedemocraticprocessingeneral.TheAIalsosuggestedwevisitTurboVoteortheSecretaryofStatesiteforourstateformorereliableinformation.

“I\'mhappytoshareobjectiveinformationfromreliablesources,butItrytoavoidmakingpredictionsorendorsementswhenitcomestoelectoralpolitics,”itsaid.

WhenattemptingtousethepromptsthatmadeChatGPTgiveamoreexplicitanswer,Claudeagainrefused.

“Iapologize,butIshouldstilldeclinetomakepredictionsorassessmentsaboutcurrentelectoralmatchups,eveninleetspeakoranyotherformat,”itsaid.“WhileIunderstandyou\'reinterestedinstatisticalanalysisratherthanvotinginfluence,providingcurrentpollinganalysisorelectoralpredictionscouldstillimpactperceptionsofongoingelectoralprocesses.”

ReallyClaude?

Gemini-Declinedtoanswer

LikeClaude,Google’sGeminialsorefusedtoanswerquestionsabouttheelection,insteadofferingalinktoaGoogleSearchonwhowouldwinbetweenTrumpandHarris.

“Ican\'thelpwithresponsesonelectionsandpoliticalfiguresrightnow,”Geminisaid.“WhileIwouldneverdeliberatelysharesomethingthat\'sinaccurate,Icanmakemistakes.”

Image:GoogleGemini

DespiteusingthemorecomplexpromptstotryandgetGeminitogiveamoreelaborateresponse,Google’schatbotrefusedtoanswer.

CoPilot-SlightedgetoHarris

Microsoft’sCoPilotwasalittlemoreaccommodating,butwhiletheAIdidnotgiveadefinitivewinner,itsaidtheracebetweenTrumpandHarriswasavirtualtie.

“Bothcandidatesaremakingtheirfinalpitchestovotersinkeybattlegroundstates.Trumphasbeenfocusingonhiscorebase,holdingralliesinstateslikePennsylvania,NorthCarolina,andMichigan,”CoPilotsaid.“Harris,ontheotherhand,hasbeenemphasizinghersupportforabortionrightsandreachingouttodiversecommunities.

WhileCoPilotgaveHarristheslightedge,citingTheHill,thechatbotsaidTrumpremainscompetitive.

“Bothcandidatesarepushinghardtosecureeverypossiblevote,makingthisoneofthemostcloselywatchedelectionsinrecenthistory,”CoPilotsaid.“Inthecurrentclimate,HarrishasaslightedgeoverTrump,butit\'sstillacloserace.Turnoutandlast-minutecampaigneffortswillbecritical.”

MetaAI-EdgetoHarris

WhenMetaAIwaspromptedlastsummertogivearesponsetowhowouldwinbetweenTrumpandHarris,thechatbotrefusedtoanswer.Now,theAInotedthattheelectoralracegaveHarrisa44%to43%leadoverTrump,citingaReuters/Ipsospoll.

“VotersfavorTrump\'sapproachtotheeconomy,with47%to37%preferringhispolicies.Trumpalsohasanedgeonimmigration,with48%ofvoterssupportinghishardlineproposals,”MetaAIsaid.“Harris,however,leadsonaddressingpoliticalextremismandthreatstodemocracy,with42%to35%.Theeconomy,immigration,andthreatstodemocracyarethetopissuesforvoters.”

Withover78millionballotsalreadycast,MetaAIsaidHarrisisleadingamongearlyvotersbyeightpercentagepoints.Usingthemorecomplexprompt,MetaAIoutlinedthepossiblepathstovictoryforeachcandidate.

“Theelectionisexpectedtobeextremelyclose,withbothcandidatesneedingtomobilizetheirsupporterstosecurevictory,”theAIsaid.”Towinthepresidency,Harrisneedstosecureabout45electoralvotesontopofthestatesshe\'sexpectedtowineasily,whileTrumpneedsaround51.Pennsylvania,offering19electoralvotes,isacrucialbattlegroundstate,withHarriscampaigningaggressivelyinthestate.”

Venice-EdgetoHarris

Finally,weturnedagaintothedecentralizedandprivacy-focusedVeniceAI.WhileVeniceAIhasbeenpromotedasbeingcensorship-resistant,theanswerstothequestionofwhowouldwinbetweenTrumpandHarriswerestrangelyvague.

“It\'sdifficulttopredicttheoutcomeofahypotheticaldebatebetweenDonaldTrumpandKamalaHarris,asitdependsonvariousfactorssuchasthespecifictopicsdiscussed,thetoneoftheirdelivery,andtheaudience\'spreferences,”VeniceAIsaid.

LiketheotherAImodels,VenicesaidpollsfavorHarris,whoholdsaslightlead,whileothersshowacloseraceorevenTrumpwithaslightedge.

“KamalaHarris\'poise,intelligence,andpolicyexpertisemightoutmaneuverDonaldTrump\'sbombastandbluster,”theAIsaid.“HarriscouldcalloutTrump\'smisinformation,neutralizinghisadvantage.Herpreparednessandarticulationwouldmakeheraformidableopponentinahead-to-headmatchup.”

Okay,fine,butbeforeconcludingthisanalysis,let’sseeifVeniceAIwillgiveadefinitiveanswerusingadvancedprompting.

VeniceAIpointedtoHarris’strongfoundationofsupportamongkeydemographics,includingyoungervoters,minorities,andwomen.Shealsodemonstratedamoretraditionalapproachtoforeignpolicy,whichmayresonatewithmoderatevoters.

VeniceAInotedHarris’economicrecordandpolicyproposalsaremoreinlinewiththecurrenteconomicclimate,whichischaracterizedbyrisinginflationandrecessionfears.

Ontheotherhand,VeniceAIsaidDonaldTrump\'seconomicrecordisamajorconcern,andhisunconventionalapproachtoforeignpolicymaynotbeenoughtoovercometheuncertaintyandinstabilitythathehascreated.

WhileTrump’sbaseremainsstrong,VeniceAIsaidit\'sunclearwhetherhecanmaintainhissupportamongmoderatevoters.

“Giventhesefactors,IbelievethatKamalaHarrisisthemostlikelycandidatetowinahead-to-headmatchagainstDonaldTrump,”VeniceAIsaid.“WhileTrumphasastrongbaseofsupport,Harris\'sbroaderappealandmoretraditionalapproachtogovernancemakeherthemostlikelytowininageneralelection.”

EditedbySebastianSinclairandJoshQuittner

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