PolymarketbettingdatashowedthebiggestleadformerPresidentDonaldTrumphasboastedoverKamalaHarrissinceshejoinedtherace.
LessthanthreeweeksbeforetheU.S.presidentialelection,Polymarketusersbetonanapproximate58%chancethatRepublicancandidateDonaldTrumpwillprevailoverDemocraticticketholderKamalaHarris.Sentimentonthedecentralizedpredictionmarketrecorded15percentagepointdifferenceinvictoryodds,thelargestgapbetweenthetwopresidentialfrontrunnersseenontheplatformsofar.
Asofpublishing,theoddsofHarriswinningtheWhiteHousehaddroppedto43.1%.Polymarket’s“PresidentialElectionWinner2024”markethasbeenoneofthebiggestelectionbettingcontractsthispoliticalcycle.Bettingvolumesforthisoutcomeneared$2billionweekspriortotheelectiononNov.4.
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DonaldTrump,thecurrentleaderonPolymarket,hascapturedthelion’sshareofthisvolume,worthover$561million,againstHarris’$381million.Bothcandidateshavefieldedpolicypromisesmeanttocurryfavorwithcryptovotersthroughoutthecampaign.TrumpstartedthetrendduringaMaygala,announcinghimselfasthecryptopresidentandsharingpro-Bitcoin(BTC)rhetoriceversince.
Harrishastakenamorecautiousapproach,pledgingsupportfor“newinnovativetechnologies.”VicePresidentHarrisalsoreleasedacampaignagendatochampionwealthgenerationforBlackmalecryptoinvestors.Accordingtocrypto.news,theHarristeamsaidshewouldbackcrypto-friendlyregulatoryframeworkstoprotectinvestorsandincreaseaccesstocapitalformationservices.
Meanwhile,chatteraroundelectioncontractsonplatformslikePolymarkethascontinuedtoreachnewhighs.ThePolygon-basedvenuewasintegratedintoBloomberg’sterminal,afirstforacrypto-nativeprotocol,andwasmentionedbybillionaireXownerElonMusk.
ElonbeingaPolymarketfannevergetsold@elonmuskhttps://t.co/dpufdNKW5Z
—ShayneCoplan(@shayne_coplan)October7,2024
MarketcompetitorslikeKalshireceivedcourtapprovaltolistCongressionalcontractsforU.S.customers,potentiallypavingthewayforofferingsaroundthepresidentialoutcomes.ProjectslikeWintermutewerealsoreportedlyexploringenteringtheon-chainpredictionbusiness.
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