Donald Trump’s actions show a man fighting to lose, not win the election
DonaldTrumpisnotactinglikeamanseriousaboutwinningthispresidentialelection.Hiskeyproposal(universaltariffs)iswildlyunpopularwithvoters. AnNBCNewspollrevealedthat44%ofvotersarelesslikelytobackacandidatewhosupportstariffsofupto20%onimports.Only35%saidtheywouldbemorelikelytosupportsuchacandidate,and19%saiditwouldn’tmatter.Thisisnotawinningstrategy. Despitethebacklash,Trumpisdiggingin.Hislogic?PushtariffssohighthatcompanieshavenochoicebuttorelocatetotheUnitedStates.Inarecentinterview,Trumpexplainedthat: “Thehigherthetariff,themorelikelyitisthatthecompanywillcomeintotheUnitedStatesandbuildafactoryintheUnitedStates,soitdoesn’thavetopaythetariff.” He’sfloateda20%tariffonallimportsanda60%tariffonChinesegoods,bettingthatthiswillforcejobcreationandmakeAmericarichagain. Trump’sfacesejectionfromallsides Theproblem?Economists,voters,andevensomemembersofhisownpartyarecallingtheideareckless.ExpertswarnthattariffshurtAmericanbusinessesfirst. Importerswillpaythetariff,andthosecostswillgetpassedontoconsumers.Moreexpensivegoodsmeanhigherinflation—justasinflationintheU.S.hadstartedtoease. Withinflationataround5.5%year-on-yearinOctober2024,someeconomistsfearthattariffscouldpushinflationbeyond7%. RepublicanSenateMinorityLeaderMitchMcConnellsaidinSeptember,“I’mnotafanoftariffs.TheyraisepricesforAmericanconsumers.” KamalaHarris,Trump’sDemocraticopponent,jumpedontheissue,callinghistariffproposalthe“Trumpsalestax.” TheBidenadministrationhaskeptsomeTrump-eratariffsbutclaimsitsapproachismorecalculated.TreasurySecretaryJanetYellenemphasizedthattheirtariffsaretargetedatstrategicsectors. Shealsosaidthatagroupofeconomistsoverwhelminglybelievebroadtariffswouldharmtheeconomy.TheBiden-HarriscampinsiststheyareprotectingAmericanindustrieswithouthurtingconsumers. ElonMusk,Bitcoin,andTrump’stariffs AsTrumpbattlesbacklashovertariffs,he’sgotastrongsupporterinElonMusk,whohasbeenpushingapetitiontoenticeswingstatevotersforhim. AtaneventinPennsylvania,Muskpromised$1millionadaytoasignerofhispetitiontogetvotersmotivated.Naturally,thishasgottenbothmenatonofbacklashoverthepastcoupleofdays. ForBitcoin,Trump’stariffplanmightbebothathreatandanopportunity.Ifhispoliciesspikeinflation,itcouldgetaboost. Historically,Bitcoinisviewedasahedgeagainstinflation.DuringTrump’sfirstterm,histariffsonChinacontributedtopricehikesacrossvarioussectors,andanalystsexpectarepeatperformance. SomeanalystsbelieveBitcoincouldhit$150,000ifinflationjumps.Still,volatilitywillbeamajorconcern.Politicaleventslikedebatesandelectionshavemadepricesswingwildlythisyear. ShouldTrumpwin,theannouncementofnewtariffscouldtriggeranothershort-termsell-off.Butinthelongrun,BitcoinmightthriveundertheinflationarypressuresthatTrump’stariffswouldunleash. cryptopolitan.com