JeffParkofBitwiseprojectsBitcoincouldreach$92,000ifDonaldTrumpwinsthe2024U.S.presidentialelection.
Trump’scampaignpromisestomaketheU.S.thegloballeaderincrypto,possiblyderegulatingandfosteringgrowth.
OpinionslikethosefromMarkCubansuggestthatanypotentialcryptosurgefromaTrumpvictorycouldbeshort-lived.
AnalystshavebeeneagerlypredictingamassiveimpactonBitcoin’spricebasedonwhowins,andcryptocurrencymarketshavecollidedwiththeU.S.presidentialelections.JeffPark,HeadofAlphaStrategiesatBitwise,haspredictedthatBitcoincouldpeakat$92,000ifTrumpgetsreelected.ThispredictionisgroundedinadetailedanalysisofbettingtrendsandBitcoin’shistoricalpricemovementsinresponsetopoliticalevents.
Charting$BTCpriceagainstTrump’sodds(via@Polymarket)from8/15to10/20revealssomewildswings—particularlywhenHarrisandTrumptookturnsleading.Byapplyingmergerarb-styleprobabilitymath,IprojectaTrumpvictorycouldpushBTCto~$92,000
Takethatasyouwillpic.twitter.com/OGy8M3Vju1
—JeffPark(@dgt10011)October22,2024
Park’sprojectionsarebasedonTrump’scurrentoddsondecentralizedbettingplatformslikePolymarketandananalyticalapproachsimilartomergerarbitrageprobabilitycalculations.HenotesthatTrump’spro-cryptopoliciesandcommitmenttoderegulatingthesectorcouldcatalyzethispotentialpricesurge.Thecryptocommunityisparticularlytunedintotheelection.TrumphaspledgedtomaketheU.S.the“cryptocapitaloftheworld”anddismissSECChairGaryGensler,whichcouldfosteramorefavorableregulatoryenvironment.
CampaignContributionsandCryptoPolicies
Thecryptoindustry’sinvolvementinpoliticalfundinghasbeennoteworthythiselectioncycle.APACsupportingDonaldTrumphasreportedlyaccumulatedapproximately$7.5millionincryptocurrencydonations.ThisalignswithTrump’sstrategytoappealtocryptoinvestorsbypromisingsignificantregulatoryreforms.Thesector’spoliticalcontributionshavesurged,showingamorethantenfoldincreasecomparedtothepreviouspresidentialcycle,withmajorplayerslikeCoinbaseandAndreessenHorowitzemergingaskeycontributors.
Thiselection’sfundingdynamicsunderscorethegrowinginfluenceofcryptocurrencyinpoliticalspheres.Asdigitalassetsbecomemoreintertwinedwitheconomicandregulatorypolicies,theirroleinshapingpoliticallandscapesandcandidateplatformshasbecomeincreasinglyprominent.AnalystsobservethatcryptoownerstendtofavorTrump,attributedtohisexplicitsupportfortheindustry,contrastingwithKamalaHarris’slessdefinedstanceoncrypto.
SkepticismAmidstBullishPredictions
Despitetheoptimisticoutlookfromsomecornersofthecryptoworld,notallindustryfiguresareconvincedthataTrumpvictorywouldsustainalong-termbullishtrendforBitcoin.High-profileinvestorMarkCubansuggeststhatanypost-electionsurgecouldbetemporary.HearguesthatTrump’sbroadereconomicpolicies,particularlythoserelatedtotradeandtariffs,couldintroduceinflationarypressuresthatnegativelyaffectthecryptocurrencymarketovertime.
Thepollingdatapresentsamixedpicture,withKamalaHarrisslightlyleadinginnationalpollsbutTrumpshowingstrongersupportonbettingplatforms.Thissuggestsapossiblydivergentviewamongthegeneralelectorateandthoseinvestedincryptocurrency.
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