BitcoinhashistoricallyexperiencedstronggainsinOctober,andthistrendseemstobeholding,withBTCsurpassing$66,000andETHreachingatwo-weekhigh.
Aftereclipsingthatlevel,bitcoin’spricehadsettledaround$65,850by4pmET—up4.8%from24hoursprior.Etherwastradingatabout$2,620atthattime,a6%gainfromadayago.
Seasonaltrendanalysiscontinuestopointtotheso-called“Uptober”narrativeandstrongfourthquarterperformancedespitethemonth’s“patchy”firstcoupleofweeks,accordingtoLMAXGroupmarketstrategistJoelKruger.
Readmore:AsBTCralliesafterjobsreport,whatarethe‘Uptober’odds?
“Bitcoinandcryptoassetsoverallhaveactuallyheldupquitewelloflatewhenconsideringawaveofbroad-baseddemandfortheUSdollarinrecentweeksonthebackofarepricingofFedexpectations,”KrugertoldBlockworks.
Bitcoinhaspushedbacktowarditsrecentresistancelevelatroughly$66,550,hesaid,adding:“Abreakbackabovethislevelshouldopenthedoorforamoredirectretestoftherecordhighfromearlierthisyear.”
Despitebitcoinbreakingits2021highearlierthisyear(above$73,000),ETHhasyettosurpassthenearly$4,900markithitthreeyearsago.
Thereis“importantresistance”inETH’spricearound$2,820,Krugernoted—abreakabovewhichwouldsuggestcryptoassetsaresetforamoresignificantrun.
“Thishasalreadybeenabreakthroughyearfortheassetclassgiventhefriendlierregulatoryclimate,wideradoptionandintroductionofthebitcoinandETHETFsintheUS,”heexplained.“AllofthissuggeststhemarketshouldbewantingtopushforabigbreakoutintheweeksaheadandwewillbekeepinganeyeonthosealreadymentionedkeylevelsinbitcoinandETHforconfirmation.”
Thefactorsatplay
ChinaFinanceMinisterLanFoansaidSaturdaythatthegovernmentplanstorampupdebtissuancetoreviveeconomicactivity—apotentialpositiveforriskassetslikeBTC.
“Whilstnodetailswereprovidedontheexactsize,strongcommitmentsto‘significantlyincrease’debttosupporttheeconomyboostedlocalequitymarkets,”WintermuteOTCtraderJakeOstrovskissaidinanemail.
Thatcameafterthechiefexecutiveoftheworld’slargestassetmanager—BlackRock’sLarryFink—saidFridaythat“theutilizationofdigitalassets[is]goingtobecomemoreandmoreofarealityworldwide.”
BlackRock,withmorethan$11trillionassetsundermanagement,haswadedintothecryptosegmentviaitslaunchofspotbitcoinandetherETFsthisyear.
“Ifwecancreatemoreacceptability,moretransparency,moreanalyticsrelatedtotheseassets,thenitwillbeexpanded,”Finksaidofthecryptoassetclassduringanearningscalllastweek.
TheCEOalsoquestionedhowtheUScouldlooktodigitizethedollar,noting“allofthatisgoingtobeunderdiscussion.”
Finkadded:“Webelievethetechnologyoftheseblockchainsaregoingtobecomeveryadditive,andthenitwilloverlayAIand[have]betterdataanalytics.Theapplicabilityandthebroadeningofthesemarketswilloccur.”
USspotbitcoinETFstallied$349millionofnetinflowsfromOct.7toOct.11,FarsideInvestorsdatashows.
InvestordecisionsarelikelybeingdrivenmorebytheupcomingUSelectionsthanbymonetarypolicyforecasts,accordingtoCoinSharesresearchheadJamesButterfillinarecentblogpost.
“Thistrendisevidentinthefactthatstronger-than-expectedeconomicdatahadlittleimpactonstemmingoutflows,whereastherecentUSvicepresidentialdebateandasubsequentshiftinpollingtowardstheRepublicans,perceivedasmoresupportiveofdigitalassets,ledtoanimmediateboostininflowsandprices,”headded.
Further,thecurrentlackofclarityaroundtheUSelectionoutcomeandgloballiquidityconditionsare“preventingthemarketfromestablishingaclearerdirectionaltrend,”notesFalconX’sDavidLawant.
“Asuncertaintysurroundingthesefactorsdiminishes,ETFflowsmayre-emergeasamoresignificantdriverofpriceaction,”Lawantexplainedinaresearchnote.
Aportionofexpectedsellingpressurelookstobeoffthetablefornowgiventheone-yeardeadlineextensionforMt.Goxrepayments—fromOct.31,2024toOct.31,2025.
Readmore:BitcoinbullsmeettheirthirdfinalbossafterUSandGermany:Mt.Gox
AbeliefinrecentmonthshasbeenthatMt.Goxcreditors,whohavelongawaitedthereturnoftheirfunds,couldopttoselltheircryptoanddrivepricesdown.
Pricepredictions
DanTapiero,founderof1RoundTablePartnersand10THoldings,saidduringapaneldiscussionlastweekthatheexpectsBTCtohitbetween$150,000and$180,000intwoyearsorso.
Theupperendofthatwouldbea3xgainfromthe$60,000levelbitcoinhashoveredaroundforawhilenow,hesaid,notingBTC’ssimilarriseinearly2021.
FellowpanelistPanteraCapitalCEODanMoreheadgaveamoreexactpriceandtimeline,projectingBTCcouldhit$117,000byAugust2025.This,hesaid,isbasedonpreviouspost-halvingpricepatterns.
WhiletherewasplentyoftalkatPermissionlessabouthowmuchtheelection(nownearlythreeweeksaway)willimpactcrypto’strajectoryonewayoranother,Tapieroseemstopreferlookingatthegranderpicture.
The10Tfoundersaid:“Thismovetowardputtingallvalueonablockchainisbiggerthanoneelection.”
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