AstheUSPresidentialElectiondrawsnear,Bitcoin’sdominanceoverthecryptocurrencymarketisrising.Thispotentiallydampenshopesforanaltcoinseason.
Bitcoin’sdominance,measuredbyBTC.D,hasclimbedtoitshighestlevelsince2021.ThissurgecoincideswithsignificantcapitalinflowsintoBitcoinETFsandarelativelystagnantperformanceofmanyaltcoins.
BitcoinFortheWin
Bitcoindominancemeasuresthecoin’smarketcapitalizationrelativetothetotalmarketcapitalizationofallothercryptocurrencies.Asofthiswriting,itsitsat59.77,itshighestlevelsinceApril2021.
WhenBTC.Dclimbs,Bitcoin’sshareofthetotalcryptocurrencymarketcapitalizationisincreasingrelativetoaltcoins.BeInCrypto’sassessmentofitskeymomentumindicatorsconfirmsthestrengtheningbullishbiastowardtheleadingcoinandthelikelihoodofextendeddominance.
BitcoinDominance.Source:TradingView
Forexample,readingsfromtheBTC.D’smovingaverageconvergence/divergence(MACD)showitsMACD(blue)restingaboveitssignalline(orange)asofthiswriting.
ThissetupsuggeststhatBitcoiniscurrentlyseeingincreasingstrengthwithinthecryptomarket,outpacingaltcoinsintermsofmarketcapshare.Itindicatesthatthecurrentmarketconditionsarelessconduciveforanaltcoinseason,withBitcoinlikelytooutperformmanyoftheseassetsinthenearterm.
BTC.DMACD.Source:TradingView
DemandforBitcoinspotexchange-tradedfunds(ETFs)hassurgedrecently,highlightingstronginterestintheleadingcryptocurrency.Inarecentreport,digitalassetresearchfirm10XResearchindicatedthatrisingBTCETFdemandcoulddriveBitcoin’spriceto$100,000byJanuary2025.
“BitcoinspotETFspurchased$4.1billioninOctoberalone—thehighestvolumesinceMarch2024—withbuymomentumshowingnosignsofslowingasallETFbuyersremainprofitable.Lastnight,spotETFsacquiredanadditional$830millioninBitcoin,bringingthe5-daytotalto$2.1billion.WithETFdemandgoingparabolic,Bitcoinissettofollowsuit.Ifthistrendholds,ourquantsignalalsoprojectsapotentialrallyto$100,000bytheendofJanuary2025,”theresearchfirmwrote.
TOTAL2ConsolidatesWithinaRange
WithcapitalflowingintoBitcoinETFs,individualandinstitutionalinvestorsaremorelikelytoprioritizeBTCinvestmentsoverless-establishedaltcoins.Asaresult,lesscapitalflowsintothealtcoinmarketreducingtheirpricemomentumandtradingvolumes.
TOTAL2PriceAnalysis.Source:TradingView
ThishasplayedoutasreflectedbyTOTAL2’s(thetotalmarketcapitalizationofallcryptocurrenciesexcludingBitcoin)sidewaysmovementssinceearlyAugust.WhileBTC.Dhasrallied,TOTAL2hasconsolidatedwithinthe$967billionand$856billionpricerange.
Thisconsolidationindicatesthataltcointradershavebeenuncertainaboutthenextdirectionpriceswilltake.Thishasledtodecreasedvolatilityandtradingvolume,furtherdelayingthealtcoinseason.
AltcoinSeasonIndex.Source:BlockchainCenter
Moreover,thealtcoinseasoncommenceswhenatleast75%ofthetop50altcoinsoutperformBitcoinoverathree-monthperiod.RecentdatafromBlockchainCenterrevealsthatonly29%ofthesetopaltcoinshavesurpassedBitcoin’sperformanceinthepast90days—wellbelowthe75%thresholdrequiredtodeclareanaltcoinseasonofficially.
beincrypto.com